A Cullen Harper Conspiracy Theory
Did Tommy Bowden sandbag in 2006 by keeping Harper on the bench to lower expectations in 2007? The idea hit me today while flying from Atlanta to Florida...
Let's think about this. In 2006, Will Proctor lost all confidence and by the time we played our Bowl game against Kentucky, he couldn't complete a pass longer than 10 yards in the air. In 2007, Cullen Harper comes out slinging and goes several games without throwing an interception while throwing lots of TDs and lots of great passes. Everyone was hoping for Willy Korn, but Harper came out looking like he was going to keep Korn on the bench until 2009.
So... the logical question that everyone should have been asking was: where was this last year? Was the kid really that bad that he couldn't even get a series while Proctor was taking a nose dive and losing games single-handedly? Did he really improve that much in one year?
Obviously, the answer is no. Obviously Cullen Harper should have been given a shot in 2006. I'd even go so far as to say he should have started the last 4 games. But he didn't.
Why didn't he? Does Bowden stick with the upperclassmen to the end, no matter what? Well no, just look at the way he threw Willie Simmons under the bus. So what was it that made Bowden stick with Proctor?
Sandbagging, or the art of lowering expectations by purposefully underperforming.
Tommy Bowden knew that after 2007 he was either going to be fired or given a contract extension, and he knew that if expectations where high and he failed to win the ACC he would probably get fired, so he had to lower expectations in order to get the extension. So, to that end, he kept Harper on the bench and let doubt grow and controversy erupt over the QB position. He knew in 2006 that if he put Harper in and he came out blasting, the hype machine would start churning and everyone would be talking about the great things to come in 2007. He couldn't let that happen, because then people would expect him to perform.
Now look what happened in 2007: Expectations were low coming into the year because nobody knew if we would have a QB or not, and most people were expecting the team to rely on a freshman QB who'd never seen a college field of play. We did have two of the best RBs in the nation, a solid defense, some great receivers, and what turned out to be a great QB, so on talent alone we won 9 games. When you look at those 9 games though, it's not that impressive:
We beat three weak OOC teams: Furman, LA-Monroe, CMU
We beat four weak ACC teams: Wake, NC State, Maryland, Duke
We beat one mediocre ACC team: FSU
We beat a bad SEC team: SC (they lost 5 in a row)
We lost to one mediocre ACC team: GT
We lost to the only two good teams we played: VT and BC
So, in any rational person's view, we had yet another mediocre season under Tommy Bowden, and yet another no-show in the ACC title game.
However, in the eyes of many Tiger fans and unfortunately in the eyes of the Administration, this equates to progress for the program and a contract extension for Tommy Bowden. The main reason given: we were expected to win 7, maybe 8 games, but instead we won 9, so that must mean we have a great coaching staff that's taking us in the right direction.
Wrong. We're in the same spot we've been for the last 15 years. Was it all planned out this way by Bowden to ensure that contract extension? I don't know. It wouldn't surprise me though.
Let's think about this. In 2006, Will Proctor lost all confidence and by the time we played our Bowl game against Kentucky, he couldn't complete a pass longer than 10 yards in the air. In 2007, Cullen Harper comes out slinging and goes several games without throwing an interception while throwing lots of TDs and lots of great passes. Everyone was hoping for Willy Korn, but Harper came out looking like he was going to keep Korn on the bench until 2009.
So... the logical question that everyone should have been asking was: where was this last year? Was the kid really that bad that he couldn't even get a series while Proctor was taking a nose dive and losing games single-handedly? Did he really improve that much in one year?
Obviously, the answer is no. Obviously Cullen Harper should have been given a shot in 2006. I'd even go so far as to say he should have started the last 4 games. But he didn't.
Why didn't he? Does Bowden stick with the upperclassmen to the end, no matter what? Well no, just look at the way he threw Willie Simmons under the bus. So what was it that made Bowden stick with Proctor?
Sandbagging, or the art of lowering expectations by purposefully underperforming.
Tommy Bowden knew that after 2007 he was either going to be fired or given a contract extension, and he knew that if expectations where high and he failed to win the ACC he would probably get fired, so he had to lower expectations in order to get the extension. So, to that end, he kept Harper on the bench and let doubt grow and controversy erupt over the QB position. He knew in 2006 that if he put Harper in and he came out blasting, the hype machine would start churning and everyone would be talking about the great things to come in 2007. He couldn't let that happen, because then people would expect him to perform.
Now look what happened in 2007: Expectations were low coming into the year because nobody knew if we would have a QB or not, and most people were expecting the team to rely on a freshman QB who'd never seen a college field of play. We did have two of the best RBs in the nation, a solid defense, some great receivers, and what turned out to be a great QB, so on talent alone we won 9 games. When you look at those 9 games though, it's not that impressive:
We beat three weak OOC teams: Furman, LA-Monroe, CMU
We beat four weak ACC teams: Wake, NC State, Maryland, Duke
We beat one mediocre ACC team: FSU
We beat a bad SEC team: SC (they lost 5 in a row)
We lost to one mediocre ACC team: GT
We lost to the only two good teams we played: VT and BC
So, in any rational person's view, we had yet another mediocre season under Tommy Bowden, and yet another no-show in the ACC title game.
However, in the eyes of many Tiger fans and unfortunately in the eyes of the Administration, this equates to progress for the program and a contract extension for Tommy Bowden. The main reason given: we were expected to win 7, maybe 8 games, but instead we won 9, so that must mean we have a great coaching staff that's taking us in the right direction.
Wrong. We're in the same spot we've been for the last 15 years. Was it all planned out this way by Bowden to ensure that contract extension? I don't know. It wouldn't surprise me though.
+newsvine
+digg
+del.icio.us
+reddit
Just so I have this right: An embattled coach who is constantly on the hot seat does everything he can to tank a third of a season so as to increase pressure on himself and lower expectations for next season.
Saying we underperformed in our big ACC games this year is fair.
A conspiracy theory about a head coach throwing away part of a season - and his players, assistant coaches, staff, and administrators just standing around and letting him do it...and not to mention that he's hurting his career and reputation by losing - is ridiculous. I think we're better off with you and other cynical fans not paying for IPTAY dues or tickets this year.
Posted by
T_Mac |
11/29/07 4:42 AM
Apparently you missed this part:
"Was it all planned out this way by Bowden to ensure that contract extension? I don't know. It wouldn't surprise me though."
BTW, Bowden wasn't on the hotseat lsat year. If so, he would have been fired. Bowden is a smart man so he knew what he had to accomplish last year and did just enough, then he knew what he had to do this year and he did just enough. Like I said, I don't *know* that he orchestrated the dive last year, but maybe, just maybe the thought crossed his mind that if he put in Harper it would raise expectations too much for this year. I mean it's not that far of a leap to make.
Posted by
Tom |
11/29/07 9:11 AM